No room for complacency

Upcoming UK and French elections are far less predictable than you might think.

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Finding the right niches

Investor interest remains high in both unlisted real estate and infrastructure. We see opportunities, notably in Europe, but also a strong need for a selective approach.

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The environment is becoming more confusing for bond investors

While politics and growth are playing a greater role again for rates in the U.S., markets in Europe are looking at the ECB and its slow exit from quantitative easing.

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There is a good reason why markets are expensive

Equities are expensive by nearly all measures. Still, given the robust economy, we would use any dips in the market as potential buying opportunities.

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Getting a tad cloudier

On both sides of the Atlantic, policy uncertainty has rarely been as high. Not that you would know by looking at financial-market volatility.

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Investment traffic lights

Our tactical and strategical view

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Update on Japan equities

Despite their strong recent run, we believe Japanese stocks have further to go.

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Hedging our bets

We live in uncertain times. How do we aim to protect our portfolios as we head into 2017?

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Go global and focus on income

Given the low-interest-rate environment in Europe and political uncertainties, it remains critical to diversify both across asset classes and regions.

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Trump reshuffles bond market

The Republican victory may have sparked a transition from a phase of rock-bottom interest rates to a phase of merely low interest rates.

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The post U.S. elections euphoria

The post U.S. elections euphoria is fading, except in equity markets

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No messing with volatility

Why we hedge against rising volatility despite the risk being called old fashioned.

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Equity market volatility has come down

Low volatility periods usually have not indicated an imminent bear market

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A very British affair

From a market perspective, the UK elections look almost like a non-event.

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Unlike other markets, exchange rates remain under the sway of politics

Labor’s rebound is weighing on the British Pound

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In a nutshell

Explore our interactive market outlook!

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How much of a "Trump effect" is in the markets?

Probably less than expected. This reduces the potential for disappointment.

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Afraid of angry voters?

As Europeans head to the polls, beware of naive analogies with Trump and Brexit.

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Stay tuned! Follow Stefan Kreuzkamp on Twitter

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On to the next hike

The Fed finally moves, and signals there is more to come.

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One Trump does not a summer rally make

Trump took everyone by surprise and gave the stock market wings. We doubt this euphoria will last until the end of 2017 and therefore remain only moderately positive.

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Our Forecasts

All forecasts at a glance.

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The price of globalization

Globalization has brought about a convergence of prosperity between emerging and advanced economies but also a shift in labor and capital costs.

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Back on track for growth

Growth momentum is gaining regional breadth, thereby increasing the stability of the global economy. Politics remain a stress factor.

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Where now for euro yields?

The European Central Bank has made key monetary-policy decisions. Will investors see rising yields in 2017?

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Equity market volatility has come down

Low volatility periods usually have not indicated an imminent bear market

Read Article

Unlike other markets, exchange rates remain under the sway of politics

Labor’s rebound is weighing on the British Pound

Read more

It’s party time for the German economy

German economic sentiment rises to levels not seen since more than 25 years

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European earnings

A strong start into the year 2017

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Comparing economic growth: the Eurozone surprise

Since 2015, the Eurozone economy has, in fact, outpaced the U.S. economy.

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French election with big market impact

Markets have reacted with relief after the results of the first round of the French presidential election were published.

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Emerging-markets equities increasingly driven by the tech sector

Emerging-markets (EM) equities used to be seen as strongly linked to raw materials and commodity prices.

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The wave of positive economic surprises seems to peter out

We have been arguing for some time that the optimism prevailing in financial markets might take a hit sooner or later. Surprise indicators can assist in measuring whether markets see the glass "half full” or “half empty”.

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Encouraging trend for earnings estimates

Credit risk premia for Eurozone sovereign bonds are on the rise again.

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Remarkable yield divergence between French and German sovereign bond yields

French and German short term government bond yields typically move in tandem, with French bonds offering slight higher yields compared to their German counterpart

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Happy birthday, bull market!

8 years ago to the day, the S&P 500 closed at 676.5

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What it all means for France and beyond

Macron looks on track to win. Governing will be harder. How France got here has broader implications for the rest of Europe. We are upgrading European equities.

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On to the next hike

The Fed finally moves, and signals there is more to come.

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Don’t call it tapering

The ECB will buy fewer bonds, while insisting this must not be called tapering.

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Renzi resigns

For now, we consider a snap election very unlikely.

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